The NBA example is exactly what I meant.

I'm not really referring to PG or YC specifically, more to the general attitude in the startup community: it's becoming increasingly becoming Hollywood-like, with founder profiles in Vanity Fair and NY Magazine (and startups like Quora that follow the Hollywood club model of celebrity hype + watered down drinks), but while most people know that success in Hollywood is largely random, few realize how much this applies to exit-strategy startups.