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Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by chrisco255 on Monday April 20, 2020 @06:47PM (#22929678)
This is not astroturfing. I saw the protest in Austin this weekend. 22 million people have been laid off in the last 4 weeks. I've seen the footage of tens of thousands lining up at food banks across the country. This is just getting started.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by phakding on Monday April 20, 2020 @07:24PM (#22930023)
I don't see the link here. Yes there are 22 million laid off. But given a choice between being alive and being jobless, I think people would choose being jobless. The people protesting are not the same people lining up at food banks.

I have seen wapo video of Michigan protest. People there were angry because they want to get their hair done or buy paint and fertilizer. They want others to go to work to they can stay home.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by pacala on Monday April 20, 2020 @08:00PM (#22930337)
The disease does not affect age groups equally. From what I've seen, most victims are in the 60+ age groups. From NYC fatality report [0]:

    0-9: 1 0%
    10-19: 6 0.1%
    20-29: 56 0.4%
    30-39: 227 1.6%
    40-49: 535 3.7%
    50-59: 1410 9.8%
    60-69: 2863 20.0%
    70-79: 3811 26.6%
    80-89: 1753 25.4%
    90+: 12.2%
Think of people having a "vitality score" that decreases with age, and of disease as a stressor that kills people with the "vitality score" under a certain threshold. That's how the yearly flu works, by culling people under the threshold. We attribute the death to "the flu", but we could easily also call it "death by old age".

Most working age people will be just fine. Except they are jobless. Terrible times.

[0] https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Track...

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Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by pacala on Monday April 20, 2020 @08:28PM (#22930533)
Nitpick: The percentages sum up to 100, and represent the percent of total deaths, not deaths among people of certain age.

Not sure pointing fingers helps. Someone could also point fingers and claim "so you're willing to let people starve in the streets, how altruistic of you". It's a highly emotional and volatile situation, let's keep our cool.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by megavolcano on Monday April 20, 2020 @08:46PM (#22930634)
Considering that the more data we get with regards to fatality rate, it's looking more and more along the lines of the seasonal flu (which has a vaccine, generally). The drastic measures taken to protect a tiny minority of people are looking to be more and more pointless. We would not tolerate shutting down the world economy to protect people from the seasonal flu, and we should not tolerate it for this.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by pacala on Monday April 20, 2020 @09:08PM (#22930784)
I would love to bound the death rate, both lower and upper, ideally by age group. Right now I'm torn between 'it's a nasty flu, soldier up' vs. 'it's a supernasty disease that's going to severely upend life once it becomes endemic'. With the caveat that, given how easy it spreads, we might not be able to realistically do anything to prevent it becoming endemic.

Would you please be able to expand on the 'seasonal flu' point you made?

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by megavolcano on Monday April 20, 2020 @09:26PM (#22930904)
The fatality rate of the seasonal flu is around 0.1%. We originally thought that COVID-19 had a fatality rate fo 2-3%, but now that antibody testing is more and more widespread we are finding more and more cases of people testing positive for antibodies - indicating they had and recovered from the virus - without ever having any symptoms.

A study from Santa Clara just recently found that there are probably 50 to 85 times MORE infections than originally thought, just that the vast majority of them were asymptomatic.

Should we be focusing our energy on protecting our elderly and immunocompromised? Yes, absolutely.

Should we be mandating that people stay home, putting millions of perfectly healthy people out of work? It's absolutely insane to me that this was even considered, let alone implemented.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by pacala on Monday April 20, 2020 @11:24PM (#22931531)
I agree, the fatality rates reported in the media smells of overhype. A lot. Over here in WA, the testing policy is along the lines of "Test patients hospitalized with severe lower respiratory illness or people working in critical sectors, and then maybe consider people with 100.4+ fevers and/or shortness of breath" [0]. That population selection has an elevated death risk, and also muddles the positive/negative ratio: symptomatic people test positive, whereas health workers test negative. We get high negative test ratios, falsely indicating we're early in the outbreak, and also high mortality ratios among positives, falsely indicating a high fatality rate. Extrapolating to the entire population is wrong and irresponsible.

The flu and vaccine point is also well taken. For the entirety of human history the flu was a health risk for the elderly and life expectancy [excluding under 5s] was 60-70 [1]. The contemporary expectation that everyone should make it into their 80s and 90s is a strong outlier.

OTOH, people counter by pointing out that NYC is already at 0.16 [14000 / 8400000] fatality rate [2], and it's unclear how many more until this wave recedes. Then anecdotes about dead healthcare workers, reinfections, mutation rates, etc.

[0] https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/...

[1] https://www.quora.com/Excluding-child-mortality-what-is-the-...

[2] https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Track...

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by lazyasciiart on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @12:26AM (#22931868)
How do you reconcile this argument with the hospitals being full and morgues overrun? Do you think that happens every flu season?
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by pacala on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @01:39PM (#22937239)
[Not the person you addressed this question to].

I don't. Do you? We are 3 months into this mess and have wildly divergent facts that can't be reasonably reconciled.

Some attempts:

* The regular flu season uses 75% capacity of the system. A disease that's 3x worse will lead to 225% capacity needs.

* Maybe this disease is remarkably more contagious than the flu. In a tightly packed place like NYC, you might get all the cases that you're ever going to get flowing through the system within x weeks, whereas a less infectious flu season might trickle the same caseload within 2x weeks.

* This is out of the ballpark deadly, 10x-100x worse than the flu.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by lazyasciiart on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @04:48PM (#22939152)
Those aren't reconciliations, they are contradicting the assertion that this is just another seasonal flu by identifying a way in which it is worse. I don't know what you mean about having "wildly divergent facts"?
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by megavolcano on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @01:49PM (#22937377)
Not all hospitals and morgues are overrun, a lot of them are actually massively under capacity. The media hysterics about this is complete nonsense for the majority of hospitals. NYC is not the US. Hell, NYC is not New York STATE.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by lazyasciiart on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @04:49PM (#22939162)
How many hospitals or morgues should be overrun before it becomes evidence that we are not dealing with the same kind of problem as we do every flu season?
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by phakding on Monday April 20, 2020 @08:56PM (#22930710)
And how do you know the fatality rate of flu? That stat is not even reported. Even CDC only has an estimation of flu deaths.

Besides, many strains of flu has a vaccines available. Nothing of that sort exists for corona.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.ht...

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by megavolcano on Monday April 20, 2020 @09:09PM (#22930793)
You answered your own question. When comparing estimated flu deaths to the overinflatted corona reported deaths. Do I really need to be so pedantic?

Vaccines existing for the flu is the point, COVID is way less deadly considering we don't_ have a vaccine.

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Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by megavolcano on Monday April 20, 2020 @09:40PM (#22930990)
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronav...

"The city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive."

I suppose the New York Times is propoganda? I know Donald Trump would agree with that statement...

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by phakding on Monday April 20, 2020 @09:47PM (#22931043)
Ok, NY counted some that they shouldn't have. There's a vast majority of the country other than NYC that is affected by the virus and vast rest of the world too. You decided to nitpick one example and made it sound like a pattern.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by megavolcano on Monday April 20, 2020 @09:58PM (#22931110)
Paraphrasing Dr. Birx: "There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let's say the virus caused you to go to the ICU and then have a heart or kidney problem, some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death. The intent is ... if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that."

Paraphrasing mostly, but this is Dr. Birx admitting that the government is overreporting by default. So even if you exclude NYC, it doesn't change my point.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by phakding on Monday April 20, 2020 @10:15PM (#22931182)
That's how that works. Take for example, HIV. Nobody dies of HIV, but because HIV causes immunodeficiency, you can die because of common cold or flu. That doesn't mean the person died because of common cold, they died because of HIV/AIDS.

Similarly if you have type 1 diabetes and you get infected with corona, you probably died with diabetic complications, but without corona you would have been totally fine.

Not sure how that doesn't change your point. In fact you are conflating two different things. On one hand you are arguing about overreporting and on the other hand don't even want to take into consideration common practices in disease statistics. Almost makes me think you are not arguing in good faith.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by megavolcano on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @08:01AM (#22934121)
People aren't catching type 1 diabetes because they are sick by coronavirus - they already had it. Comparing it to an immunodeficiency disease is not the same. It makes zero sense to generalize the fatality rate across a healthy population and include those with pre-existing conditions when trying to gauge the response for an entire state/country when the vast majority are healthy and those who are dying are not. When I want to know the risk to me or my family, I don't care that an 81 year old with stage 4 lung cancer died when he got COVID-19 - I want to know what my chances are among healthy people - but the media hysterics cling to the vulnerable people when it has no bearing on healthy ones.

We need detailed demographics of infections and deaths. We need to break down the risks, because a blanket totalitarian response of "SHUT DOWN LITERALLY EVERYTHING" is absolutely ridiculous when the general population is going to be fine. We didn't shut down the world economy for SARS, H1N1, MERS or any particularly bad flu season and we shouldn't shut down for this. We should focus our limited resources on protecting the vulnerable and let everyone else get back to work. More lives will be destroyed from an extended shutdown than this virus ever could.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by pacala on Monday April 20, 2020 @11:39PM (#22931622)
FWIW, that's the exact same point I made in the GP, with s/HIV/old age/ and s/flu/covid/.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by Press2forEN on Monday April 20, 2020 @08:01PM (#22930347)
The choice between being alive and being jobless is a false dichotomy.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by phakding on Monday April 20, 2020 @08:25PM (#22930512)
May be for healthy, but not for the people with certain underlying conditions like diabetes, high BP, obesity etc. Also even if you are not vulnerable to the disease, you could be spreading this to the others who are even without showing symptoms.

Look at Sweden. They decided to let the people at risk stay home while others go out and about their business. Didn't work out too well for them.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by orangecat on Monday April 20, 2020 @09:03PM (#22930753)
Sweden has about the same per-capita death rate as the US and Switzerland, and lower than the UK, Spain, and Belgium. (See https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/). It's certainly possible that they'd be doing better with more restrictions, but if their strategy is as disastrous as many people seem to think then they'd be at the top of the charts, and they're not.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by phakding on Monday April 20, 2020 @09:25PM (#22930896)
That sort of proves my point. UK didn't even want to restrict anything. Netherlands, Italy and Spain acted too late. Sweden decides to selectively restrict. In US people are willing to sacrifice human life for economic activity and no wonder all these countries are worse off as far as fatality rate goes compared some other countries like Germany or India.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by orangecat on Monday April 20, 2020 @09:59PM (#22931117)
It's just odd that I constantly hear how horribly Sweden is doing, and not a peep about Switzerland.

In US people are willing to sacrifice human life for economic activity

How many additional COVID19 deaths would you accept to avoid a crippling economic depression? If the answer is zero, you are not being serious. If the answer is more than zero, then as Churchill noted, we've established what kind of person you are and are now haggling over price.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by BurningFrog on Monday April 20, 2020 @11:03PM (#22931411)
> But given a choice between being alive and being jobless,

Read literally, this says everyone who returns to work will die. For the future, I recommend more nuance in your writing.

Losing your livelihood does carry a substantial risk of increased death.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by 52-6F-62 on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @10:10AM (#22935099)
Is that so universally true?

I'm thankful right now that I live in Canada where every week—sometimes multiple times a week—measures are added or adjusted in order to prevent anyone from falling through the cracks. Some businesses have faltered or are closing permanently, but many others are receiving substantial support.

We're currently beating the projections in Ontario, and while this is not an easy time, every action necessary is being taken to at least try and prevent as many deaths by this thing as possible.

I think things would look different if the United States had taken different measures to support people during this crisis.

The barber in this narrative should receive enough aid to get by, and enough support for their business for it to persist until it can reopen—and the people who just want their hair done should just have to wait.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by BurningFrog on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @06:24PM (#22939983)
Sure, if the government replaces your livelihood, it becomes much less of an issue.

Of course, such measures can only work for a while until things start breaking down. We can do without barbers for quite a while, but the more professions are offline, the worse the accumulated effect is.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by 52-6F-62 on Thursday April 23, 2020 @11:56AM (#22957332)
I don't think these measures were ever intended to be in effect in perpetuity. They're widely understood to be a stop-gap. It seems like a good strategy to me because it appears to be working. It's not perfect, but it's definitely helping. It's even making me believe in good government. Not perfect, but good.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace,_order,_and_good_governm...

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by cpwright on Monday April 20, 2020 @08:02PM (#22930354)
The "choice between being alive and being jobless" is a matter of probabilities, which people are not great at. If you are not elderly, you likely have a higher chance of being unemployed than dying of COVID-19. So the choice is not between being alive and being jobless, it is an abstract unknown person getting sick and dying vs. you personally losing your income.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by stri8ed on Monday April 20, 2020 @08:03PM (#22930364)
> But given a choice between being alive and being jobless

To be fair that is not the actual choice on offer. Its more like being jobless, vs accepting a certain (in some cases low) probability of dying.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by maxerickson on Monday April 20, 2020 @08:38PM (#22930586)
It's not just a personal calculation though. People that are infected spread the disease and consume medical resources. Those things both impact the rest of society.
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by sethammons on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @01:28PM (#22937096)
> But given a choice between being alive and being jobless, I think people would choose being jobless.

That is not the choice. The choice is between some uncertain chance of death plus a chance to spread the infection and a certain lack of income.

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by ShorsHammer on Monday April 20, 2020 @11:52PM (#22931681)
> But given a choice between being alive and being jobless

Is that actually the choice being made here?

Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by hckr_news on Monday April 20, 2020 @07:03PM (#22929818)
Valid point. Millions are being affected by this shut-in. So what do you suggest? Re-open the country and have a free for all?
Re:Facebook says it has removed promotion of anti-quarantine... by drapred7 on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @01:39AM (#22932311)
What makes it astroturfing is that the organizers are being paid by GOP donors. You can agree with their objective or oppose it but it meets the definition of astroturfing.

Part of astroturfing is getting the grass roots to participate.

I wonder how astroturfed this was: SF Anti-mask League 1918. https://mobile.twitter.com/timkmak/status/125193624283456307...