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Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by tempsy on Monday April 20, 2020 @06:00PM (#22929164)
I mean NYC publishes the number of positive tests each day and it’s dropped from 60% to 30%. So majority of people proactively getting a test because they are symptomatic are showing up negative. Hard to believe a very high percentage of all people have had Covid, then. https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1252317247785271297...
Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by joe_the_user on Monday April 20, 2020 @06:33PM (#22929540)
Isn't that the virus test, not the anti-body test? Maybe a fairly low percentage have the virus but a high percentage have been exposed and have the anti-body.

The optimistic take on this is: that means soon enough will be exposed that their immunity will stop the spread.

The pessimistic take on this is: we also don't have strong evidence that the previously exposed are immune, ie, have a strong enough immune response to stop the virus.

Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by paganel on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @05:21AM (#22933335)
Those 30% numbers are still very high, the similar rate in Italy has dropped bellow 10% for 2 weeks now (it's the line-chart on this page [1] bellow "Tamponi giornalieri e contagiati"), with the latest week's figures somewhere between 5% and 7%.

[1] https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/

Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by marvin on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @07:40AM (#22933990)
Norway's number of positive tests was 5% at the current peak of the epidemic, for reference. Testing and isolation measures have been very effective here, so we have not had an overwhelming wave of infections (yet, knock on wood).
Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by JPKab on Monday April 20, 2020 @10:52PM (#22931355)
You are conflating a test for active virus versus an antibody test. my suspicion is that a very large percentage of people in certain neighborhoods of New York City are going to show up having been exposed and never presented symptoms. I just don't compute how else you can explain this with a virus that is so transmissible. we should also keep in mind that the number of deaths isn't necessarily indicative by itself of number of infections since deaths can be caused by hospitals being overrun.
Re:Hundreds of thousands in L.A. may have been infected with... by DeonPenny on Tuesday April 21, 2020 @04:56AM (#22933205)
This only tells if you are sick not if you were sick