But we have other countries that didn't react at all and their crematoriums have been running non-stop, like Iran, China and Italy. We also have NYC, which has brought in mobile morgues for their dead since the standard system can't handle the overflow. Why are we acting like we don't know what outcome we are trying to defend against?

Iran, China, and Spain are all already loosening lockdowns. Pretty weird thing to do if they burning people into ashes nonstop.

You can't "disprove" overreacting, but you can disprove saving the country. Case in point, Italy was not saved. What would overreaction look like? Shutting an entire country down back in December? If your definition of "overreacting" is "shutting down a country before there's a single case", you can definitely prove or disprove that.

This is true, but also unhelpful. We all make significant choices all the time that cannot be proved effective, these are heuristics and not scientific theorems.

The gist is that this is more like avoiding rock climbing because you don't want to fall to your death. It's not likely that you fall to your death rock climbing, but it is MUCH less likely if you never climb. But, you can't know the future, so you can only take actions that are either right or wrong in hindsight.

Point of clarification: Are you saying that there's no way to disprove your claim of being a savior? Or no way to disprove the reaction was disproportionate.?