Re:California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
by enjo on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @09:48PM
(#22873630)
San Miguel county in Colorado has found 0.5% of their population has confirmed antibodies after doing 1600+ tests (out of 8,000 people in the county).
As another data point, the theory of this thing being widespread in the population seems far fetched to me.
Re:California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
by arcticbull on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @10:14PM
(#22873758)
Well, Gangelt showed 15% had antibodies (subject to, potentially fair criticisms re: methodology) so I think it's fair to say it varies by locale.
While I understand that many folks from Wuhan travel all over the United States, the non-stop options from Wuhan to NYC and, if I recall correctly, SFO and LAX meant that more opportunities existed for early spread than the middle of Colorado. In fact, I can't actually pinpoint a city in San Miguel County, Colorado -- can you? (https://goo.gl/maps/F7CJ3yfDKaf1gQjDA) I guess there's a post office in Egnar... Telluride maybe?
Certainly the sparse population created natural social distancing precluding its spread.
Re:California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
by aianus on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @11:44PM
(#22874293)
The strain that is widespread in New York is the European strain: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavi...
Re:California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
by arcticbull on Wednesday April 15, 2020 @09:13PM
(#22885101)
Very cool! I wonder if that's true in the Bay Area too.
Re:California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
by aodin on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @10:57PM
(#22874015)
San Miguel County is home to Telluride ski resort, an international destination with about half a million visits per year [1]
[1] https://www.telluridenews.com/news/article_1547199f-46bc-547...
Re:California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]
by arcticbull on Tuesday April 14, 2020 @10:58PM
(#22874024)
True, population 2484.
[1] https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/Think-you-got-the...
[2] Analysis of #infected today from #dead today, using following assumptions:
1. death statistics are reliable, since cause of death tests can adequately collect fluid samples (a major source of inaccuracy in COVID-19 testing), source = talking to medical staff at Bay Area sites.
2. E[days between first infection and death] = 14 (lost the source at the moment), Therefore, number of dead today D => number of infected 14 days ago = 100 D
3. rate of death increase consistently trends around 25%/day or 15% with full lockdown, source CDC situation reports worldwide excluding regions with restricted access to journalists
4. therefore, #infected today = #infected 14 days ago growing at 25% daily = 22X, or 7X if your region was locked down for last 2 weeks
5. so #infected=2200D or 700D
[3] Last week, CDC reported 2 deaths today for Iceland, and admittedly-non-random sampling by DeCode indicated upto 1% of population have/had virus, upto 3600. Iceland has done strict quarantining of confirmed and suspected cases, and extensive testing since February, so despite no lockdown, I would put them at the 700X end of the estimate. They report ~1000 confirmed cases, so they would actually estimate 3600-1000 infected so far. My estimate would have indicated 2200-700 X D (= today's deaths, 2) = 4400 to 1400 cases.