This alternate conspiracy seems way more farfetched to me (why would US intelligence need such any such event to get an agent into China?), but if someone believed that it should be given a non-negligible prior, then they should revise my assumption that
> P(outbreak in 14km radius | virus not from WIV) = 1/3,000
I.e. their revised value should be at least as large as their prior for the alternate conspiracy.
What part of the argument are you disputing exactly? Are you claiming that applying Bayes' theorem in this way is somehow invalid, or are you just taking issue with the assumption quoted above?
I am also very surprised at people throwing probabilistic equivalence between foreign-agent conspiracy, and an accident in a lab. It seems that the latter is so much more probable.
I didn't make an error. The way the conspiracy theory goes in China is that the Military World Games [0] were held in Wuhan just before the outbreak. In other words, they knew the US military was in Wuhan specifically (in fact, right next to the seafood market), just like you know that WIV is in Wuhan specifically. The two conspiracy theories really are equally credible, by which I mean they're both bullshit.
The reason is because of this assumption you made:
Because 1/3000 is so much lower than 1/100, you're essentially assuming from the start that your favorite conspiracy theory (insert "WIV" or "CIA" or whatever else here) is a much better explanation than all other possible explanations combined, because all of them combined can only total up to a likelihood of 1/3000. In other words, you rigged the game to support your conspiracy theory from the start. I was trying to point out how similar rigging can be used to justify any conspiracy theory.0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games