Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year

Re:Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year by ornornor on Saturday April 11, 2020 @01:24AM (#22839788)

I don’t think we’d stay locked down for so long. Even with the world on lockdown, the virus still spreads. Eventually I’d think we’d reach the 60–70% infected figure which is said to be enough for herd immunity. At that point and even without a vaccine it’s probably be safe to lift most or all restrictions while we’re looking for a vaccine. As I understand it the lockdowns are to avoid an unmanageable peak in hospital use, not to avoid most people getting the virus.

I wonder if China will strictly prohibit the hunting and eating of wild animals as a result from this outbreak and the considerable international pressure, or if it’ll keep going.

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Re:Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year by rv-de on Saturday April 11, 2020 @06:04AM (#22840808)

immunization is not something your body obtains forever - might only be a few months. If the spread is too slow we'll never reach immunization. Instead the virus will take its rounds repeatedly infecting people.

Also the 60/70% figure assumes an R0 of about 3. It seems though that it is >5. Then you would need a herd immunization of >80%.

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Re:Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year by pasttense01 on Saturday April 11, 2020 @02:33AM (#22840013)

Well at 60%-70% infected you also reach the million dead figure.

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Re:Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year by ornornor on Saturday April 11, 2020 @06:02AM (#22840799)

Ok, but gradually. If everyone gets it at the same time, people who would have normally made it would die because contention over the medical resources.

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Re:Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year by kleton on Saturday April 11, 2020 @02:39AM (#22840036)

马牛羊鸡犬豕

此六畜人所饲

Horse, ox, sheep, fowl, dog, pig

These six animals are those which men keep

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Re:Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year by loftyal on Saturday April 11, 2020 @03:30AM (#22840206)

Isolation of the elderly and at-risk groups until either vaccine or herd immunity whilst increasing the stockpiles of PPE and ventilators seem like the only real strategy at the moment.

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Re:Why a coronavirus vaccine could take way longer than a year by guscost on Saturday April 11, 2020 @01:43AM (#22839839)

Yes, to be fair that seems to be the likely plan. It’s only crackpots like Bill Gates who are suggesting we go for the vaccine instead. Which, in his defense, might make sense to keep working on as a hedge.

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