I don’t think we’d stay locked down for so long. Even with the world on lockdown, the virus still spreads. Eventually I’d think we’d reach the 60–70% infected figure which is said to be enough for herd immunity. At that point and even without a vaccine it’s probably be safe to lift most or all restrictions while we’re looking for a vaccine. As I understand it the lockdowns are to avoid an unmanageable peak in hospital use, not to avoid most people getting the virus.

I wonder if China will strictly prohibit the hunting and eating of wild animals as a result from this outbreak and the considerable international pressure, or if it’ll keep going.

immunization is not something your body obtains forever - might only be a few months. If the spread is too slow we'll never reach immunization. Instead the virus will take its rounds repeatedly infecting people.

Also the 60/70% figure assumes an R0 of about 3. It seems though that it is >5. Then you would need a herd immunization of >80%.

Well at 60%-70% infected you also reach the million dead figure.

Ok, but gradually. If everyone gets it at the same time, people who would have normally made it would die because contention over the medical resources.

马牛羊 鸡犬豕

此六畜 人所饲

Horse, ox, sheep, fowl, dog, pig

These six animals are those which men keep

Isolation of the elderly and at-risk groups until either vaccine or herd immunity whilst increasing the stockpiles of PPE and ventilators seem like the only real strategy at the moment.

Yes, to be fair that seems to be the likely plan. It’s only crackpots like Bill Gates who are suggesting we go for the vaccine instead. Which, in his defense, might make sense to keep working on as a hedge.

I still wish they would recommend old and immunocompromised to stay locked up and let the young and fit out. It’s the only way out of the situation.

The UK was going to that but the numbers of dead / ICU treated looked too high.

Closing schools before the summer break might end up actually leading to more deaths, because young folks would develop immunity (relatively) safely while among their peers. Although this probably applies more to colleges and boarding schools. And if anything the less healthy teachers could have been sent home.

Young folks in schools are in constant contact with old folks. Whatever is spreading in school does not stay contained there.

The thing about schools is that thy are super effective at spreading everything.

I'm alarmed at the glee with which Americans are giving up their constitutional rights and calling for more restrictions. America is not Asia, or Europe. This is a frontier nation, and we must keep it that way.

"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

Which frontier would that be?

Forgive my slight exaggeration for dramatic effect. But the point still stands.

Spot on. I’m happy that so many folks are using the First Amendment to demand liberty in (often) civil discussions online, but to quote the immortal Dave Chappelle, “The Second Amendment is just in case the First one doesn’t work out.”

What rights do Americans have, which you don't think Europeans have exactly?

You're implying America is more free than other parts of the world, but it just isn't.

It’s not so much that we enjoy more rights, it’s that the government is powerless to take away those rights which we prefer to keep. You can believe whatever you want, but that’s very true here, and not at all true in many other places.

Do you realise most of Europe has the same freedoms as America, including constitutional rights? America isn't the only place with freedom.

Most of Europe has constitutional rights... Unless those rights are icky. For instance, freedom of speech - unless it disparages a religion, or denies the Holocaust, or...

Europe still incarcerated significantly less people. And you won't get arrested for loitering which in practical terms is freedom of movement - current situation excepted.

Funny thing it, the Benjamin Franklin quote in the context did not meant what you think it meant at all. It was said when a family was trying to one-time-payment their way out of taxation and was pro-goverment got to rule.

There are still frontier nations out there. Russia, Greenland, Outback Australia, the Canadian Territories. Perhaps Alaska.

But the continental US is a developed land with dense cities. Your idea of what your liberties should be don't justify the drastic externalities you will inflict on your neighbors.

There's damn few places in the US with population density akin to Europe or Asia.

The last big city I lived in, Fresno, is low density sprawl. The culture there is like half a million cowboys decided to move to the suburbs. They put on their cowboy crap to go to concerts at their major park. It's bizarre.

We also generally have shit public transit.

You cannot tell me that lock down is the only possible way to handle the pandemic in the incredibly low average population density of most of the US. Give me a break.

Fresno, CA has population density of 1,761.69/km2. That's not too far from Daegu, South Korea (2,818/km2), where 6,807 were infected so far and 142 people died. They stopped it only through really aggressive testing and contact tracing.

I'm so tired of this America-is-so-special argument. Freaking Mississippi has 2,260 patients now. Now what?

Mississippi is one of the poorest places in the US. It's got problems akin to a third world country.

Now what? I'm sure you think that's a rhetorical question, but today is your unlucky day because I've spent the last 19 years getting healthier while the world says it cannot be done and generally acts like a butt to me.

Now we actively create a world where public bathrooms aren't health hazards to use at all. I propose we get Walmart to write that handbook. Their bathrooms are generally pretty damn good and there are lots of establishments where I don't want to set foot in their restroom.

Now we create a world where it's normal to call ahead or order online and pick-up instead of dining out or milling about waiting for our order because we all just showed up and then ordered.

Now we create cultural norms where you don't blow your nose at the god-damned conference table or restaurant table, jebus.

Now we create cultural norms like bowing instead of shaking hands.

Now we create architectural standards like using copper for stair rails because it's antimicrobial.

Making people a prisoner of their homes while our economy gets flushed down the toilet isn't our only option. That assumption is ignorant on the face of it. There's always more than one way to solve a problem.

I genuinely agree that each of them is a noble cause that will make America a better place, but unfortunately, none of them are an answer to "We have a pandemic going on here, now what?"

First you make a absurd assertion that most of the US has much lower population density than Europe or Asia - that's true only if you measure by land area, not people, but then it's irrelevant: land doesn't contact COVID19, people do. In any case, it stopped being relevant about two weeks ago when the US overtook Italy - America's lower population density clearly didn't stop the disease.

There's a crisis going on, and I'm sorry that you will likely be affected much more by it than I will, and I agree that it's a social injustice that should be addressed in the long term, but that doesn't mean you can just wave away the crisis because you have a moral high ground. Coronavirus doesn't care.

My understanding is that it's really bad in New York, one of the few places with population density similar to Europe.

I have no idea why you assume I will be impacted more than you. Although dirt poor, I already do remote work from home and hardly go out. My life has hardly been impacted at all. A few meetings I attend were cancelled (and now people are answering my emails for a change).

The pandemic has mostly had a positive impact on my life because the rest of the world is practicing germ control for a change and pollution levels have dropped dramatically.

I mean feel free to support my Patreon or otherwise kick a few bucks my way. I can always use more cash. But my kids sit around gleefully announcing "Coronavirus is the best thing that's ever happened to our lives" and giggling about all the free games they are downloading.

"Now what ?" - Now we practice common sense social distancing and wait for the virus to take its course. No need to overreact and go full China style authoritarian lockdown. And yes, America is exceptional even if it annoys you.

America is not going to adopt common sense social distancing enough to be able to let virus run its course. That would requires massive cooperation in good faith from both parties and most states. Looking how things go on, it won't happen.

You are more likely to see epidemic being used to disadvantage other side, to make voting harder for this or that group and massive amount of lies then cooperation in good faith.

Which would had negative implications for democracies in rest of world too.

You'd be surprised. There's vast land west of the Mississippi that is still rugged and relatively undeveloped. I speak more in terms of the frontier mindset, but I digress.

> Your idea of what your liberties should be don't justify the drastic externalities you will inflict on your neighbors.

With respect, that’s up to my neighbors, not the government.