Re:Fed to buy junk bonds, lend to states in fresh virus support
by tathougies on Friday April 10, 2020 @07:57PM
(#22838601)
> If government action didn't kill demand, the ensuing death toll from letting the virus spread unchecked would eventually do it anyway.
2 million people dying in the United States isn't really that much. Given that COVID mostly affects people already more likely to die, the death toll had COVID gone unchecked would likely not be that much greater than the 2.8 million Americans that already die each year. Assuming a 30% overlap, we'd see deaths go from 2.8million to 4.2 million in one year, followed by herd immunity (according to the models). We'd then see subsequent years with a lower death rate (since there'd be fewer people with pre-existing conditions). It is unlikely that this would be as economically devastating as argued. It is incredibly unlikely it would have reduced air demand to the levels we're seeing now.
Air demand would still be around for flights to see family, etc. Most of it is gone due to government regulation. Necessary regulation for sure, but still regulation.
2 million people dying in the United States isn't really that much. Given that COVID mostly affects people already more likely to die, the death toll had COVID gone unchecked would likely not be that much greater than the 2.8 million Americans that already die each year. Assuming a 30% overlap, we'd see deaths go from 2.8million to 4.2 million in one year, followed by herd immunity (according to the models). We'd then see subsequent years with a lower death rate (since there'd be fewer people with pre-existing conditions). It is unlikely that this would be as economically devastating as argued. It is incredibly unlikely it would have reduced air demand to the levels we're seeing now.
Air demand would still be around for flights to see family, etc. Most of it is gone due to government regulation. Necessary regulation for sure, but still regulation.