Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
by AznHisoka on Friday April 10, 2020 @02:47PM
(#22836134)
Indeed. A black swan is something you never thought could exist before because you've only seen white swans. We've had pandemics in the past, though not as serious as this one. This is not a black swan, and calling it a black swan just undermines what a black swan is.
[ Parent
| on HN ]
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
by CydeWeys on Friday April 10, 2020 @07:43PM
(#22838517)
> We've had pandemics in the past, though not as serious as this one.
There have been much more serious pandemics in the past, way too many to even list here. I'll briefly mention two because we know them well in the western canon -- the 1918 flu epidemic and the black death.
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
by carapace on Friday April 10, 2020 @08:42PM
(#22838802)
> ...and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
~ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
Everybody forgets that part (which sort of proves the point, eh?)
Re:A Long Time Until the Economic New Normal
by icedchai on Friday April 10, 2020 @07:54PM
(#22838585)
Please. I don't remember almost all economic activity ceasing because of AIDS, SARS, or Ebola. I certainly don't remember most of the US being under stay-at-home orders. This particular pandemic is an extreme outlier, so it's a black swan.