Why it’s so hard to make a good Covid-19 model

Re:Why it’s so hard to make a good Covid-19 model by sesuximo on Friday April 10, 2020 @02:25AM (#22830501)

It's hard to use a roadmap with this much variance. Is there anything that can be said with certainty about covid

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Re:Why it’s so hard to make a good Covid-19 model by jhayward on Saturday April 11, 2020 @12:59PM (#22842655)

It's not the variance, it's the worst-case analysis that is helpful. You take decisions that lower the worst-case outcome.

Sure, there is lots that can be said about COVID-19. Epidemiology is a fairly well-studied field, and we have experience with aerosol-transmitted respiratory viruses. We have a pretty good feel for the transmissibility, getting better all the time. Pretty good feel for the disease course, and getting more specific about the different phases of treatment all the time. Pretty good feel for the R0 in many conditions, and the serial interval, and so on.

"Is there anything that can be said with certainty" is a dangerous position to be pushing on the public. It is the very thing that autocrats and dictators try to induce in populations through propaganda and disinformation, so that reason and self-help are surrendered. When there is no way to know truth, truth is what the Leader says it is. And we don't want to go there.

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Re:Why it’s so hard to make a good Covid-19 model by sesuximo on Sunday April 12, 2020 @03:03PM (#22850333)

I don't think it makes sense to shoot for the least bad worst case. How about the best average case.

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