Re:Yelp lays off 1000, furloughs 1100
by manquer on Thursday April 09, 2020 @02:11PM
(#22825501)
Any decent statistical model like this should include a confidence interval , if biological is so difficult then the CI would have reflected that . This just seems poor science to me
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Re:Yelp lays off 1000, furloughs 1100
by mattkrause on Thursday April 09, 2020 @02:16PM
(#22825547)
The 200k/127k people are harping about IS THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL (well, the upper half of it, hence "up to").
That's half of my point--you'd expect the confidence interval to narrow with more data, regardless of what's going on. On top of that, you've got model error and non-stationarity (e.g., better care is discovered, driving the mortality rate down), which can't be reflected in the confidence interval.
Here's one of the modelling paper. The discussion of uncertainty starts on page 4: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043752v...