Why it’s so hard to make a good Covid-19 model

Re:Why it’s so hard to make a good Covid-19 model by thereisnospork on Thursday April 09, 2020 @01:54PM (#22825297)

The point of the parent is you can't actually find R_0 because R_0 depends on the behaviors of millions of people which cumulatively are based on billions of factors. R_0 isn't a constant, it's an equation. Mathematically, unless you get really lucky or have a very idealized system, the standard models underfit the actual system.

The models can still be useful though, e.g. 'we must reduce r0 below r_critical to eliminate spontaneous spreading given herd immunity %'s' is worth knowing.

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Re:Why it’s so hard to make a good Covid-19 model by jvanderbot on Thursday April 09, 2020 @02:13PM (#22825523)

This is not as absolute as is being presented. We can speak about spreads and aggregate behavioral patterns just fine if we take times to infinity and zoom out far enough. The next few weeks or localized transmisson (which is "impossible" to model) are problematic, agreed.

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Re:Why it’s so hard to make a good Covid-19 model by jacobr1 on Thursday April 09, 2020 @06:28PM (#22827863)

Actuaries do a pretty good job predicting things at a population level, where many factors average.

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