• even if they manage the first orbital flight this year, there's no guarantee they'll stick the landing as well (took quite a few tests for F-9)
• Mars missions require in-orbit refuelling, thus a tanker version of the fairing and a docking adaptor need tobe developed first
• given they manage to develop both the tanker fairing and the docking adaptor earlier next year, they'd still need to test the refuelling process
• provided they have a working Starship, a proven in-orbit refuelling capability and a reliable landing system for Mars (i.e. no carefully prepared landing pads and guided reentry), they'd still be missing any kind of payload to actually send to Mars (in-situ fuel production plant, habitat module, or anything else useful)
There's just so many firsts that they'd need to achieve that there's zero room for failure to get all that done within 24 months. And that's just not in any way realistic.
Sure, but they have 2 years to pull that off, and there is a way this happens even in one it's just a bit ambitious.
> Mars missions require in-orbit refuelling, thus a tanker version of the fairing and a docking adaptor need to be developed first
Tanker version is dead simple, just put more rings in both tank sections. In-orbit refuelling might be a bit trickier since it's reasonably novel (technically it's done with the ISS) - but the concept is really simple. SpaceX has done docking before and has complete design authority over both things docking together, I doubt the adapter part is a serious concern for them.
> and a reliable landing system for Mars
Who said anything about reliable?
> they'd still be missing any kind of payload to actually send to Mars
A cybertruck or something. The point is the PR and the capability demonstration not the payload. If they pull this off you can bet they can get significant NASA funding to do it with NASA funded cargo next time around.
They don't need a 'tanker version' initially any Starship can refuel any other Starship. The 'tanker version' would just make it more efficient.
How do you know that they don't have any payload? Do you have special insight into what SpaceX is doing? Or are you just assuming because they haven't developed that stuff outside in a tent it can't possibly exist.
I know that because Musk said so himself several times. His priority is providing the means of transportation - everything else is someone else's job.
The idea is to let the first Starships just sit on Mars and serve as part of the first colony.
There's a distinction to be made between cargo ships, tankers, and crew transport. The first uncrewed cargo flights have zero change of returning to Earth.
There's simply no infrastructure for generating fuel and refuelling yet. So unless you want to tell me that Musk is some sort of space wizard able to conjure methane fuel into the tanks of the first cargo ships that land on Mars, this is exactly what's going to happen.