It's not classic trolley problem, because there are no second order effects modeled in the trolley problem. In this case, there is a secondary effect which is that the public realises they've been lied to and loses trust in public health authorities, which is exactly what has happened. You can only do that a couple of times before the authority has no authority.

This is different. A public health organization can only lie at large scale once before it loses the credibility that allows it to function in the first place.

... probably.

It is not even remotely a given that throwing the switch is the correct answer. The Czech Republic made masks mandatory, met that requirement by churning out a bunch of homemade masks, and have supposedly been quite successful in flattening their infection curve in doing so.

Going forward, misinformation gives every anti-vaxxer, skeptic, conspiracy theorist, and snake oil peddling bullshitter more ammunition with which to displace effective medical treatment going forward. Even the well meaning general populace becomes skeptical. You know what this results in?

Dead kids. Covid parties.

Trust in government is already so fucking slow people are throwing covid parties. And now you're suggesting that undermining that trust even more is the obvious answer?

For those of you casually tossing that around: https://www.lastwordonnothing.com/2020/03/25/the-trolley-and...