Re:Bill Gates calls for nationwide shutdown
by iso1631 on Wednesday April 01, 2020 @03:05PM
(#22752417)
There are far too many unknown, and indeed unknowable variables, for a cost-benefit analysis, even if it were politically acceptable.
There are broadly three options the US has
1) Total lockdown
2) Sporadic geographic lockdowns of various intenstiy
3) Do nothing
Factors we don't know include how behavior would change even without top down pressures (i.e. doing nothing will still damage economic output), and how long lockdowns can last before protests, riots, and full on civil war, how effective a lockdown would be, what pressure there will be on healthcare providers in each scenario (including say healthcare workers refusing to treat patients)
While our higher brains knows that as a society we are unwilling to spend $1 billion to extend someone's life by 2 days, when it comes to this sort of magnitude there are other considerations than financial benefits, indeed the entire situation brings questions of what is the value of money anyway. When we say we're willing to spend $150k to extend a life by a year, what does that actually mean?
There are broadly three options the US has
1) Total lockdown
2) Sporadic geographic lockdowns of various intenstiy
3) Do nothing
Factors we don't know include how behavior would change even without top down pressures (i.e. doing nothing will still damage economic output), and how long lockdowns can last before protests, riots, and full on civil war, how effective a lockdown would be, what pressure there will be on healthcare providers in each scenario (including say healthcare workers refusing to treat patients)
While our higher brains knows that as a society we are unwilling to spend $1 billion to extend someone's life by 2 days, when it comes to this sort of magnitude there are other considerations than financial benefits, indeed the entire situation brings questions of what is the value of money anyway. When we say we're willing to spend $150k to extend a life by a year, what does that actually mean?