Re:Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemploy...
by munk-a on Monday March 30, 2020 @07:58PM
(#22733492)
> The whole reason for social distancing and #flattenthecurve is to delay mass infections long enough for the scientific/medical establishment to develop a vaccine or, failing that, effective treatments.
This is extremely unlikely unfortunately, most flattened curves end up overtaking the populace at large - the more crucial element to control is the proportion of the population that's sick at any given time to avoid overwhelming healthcare or logistic resources.
It's not just old people who are at risk, BTW. With medical treatment the death rate of under-40s is about 0.2%, 30x less than the ~6% of over-65s. However, young people are still hospitalized at roughly half the rate of old people; if the hospital system is overwhelmed we can expect a death rate of ~5% of young people. That's about a 10 million young people in America alone. That's why it's so important to delay the epidemic long enough to build enough hospitals and ventilators to treat everyone.