There are significant second order effects (and 3rd, 4th degree effects and so on) that are difficult to foresee and accurately simulate. For example, just to continue on your train of thoughts, the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up, which is going to increase food consumption and, potentially decades later, construction activities in real estate.

> the number of average children in existing young families is going to go up

Intuitively, you'd expect that, but the data from previous epidemics show the opposite effect:

- http://www.populationassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/CAD_...

- https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-the-coronavirus-spike-births

Why would young families suddenly have more children?

Something I saw on Twitter the other day:

"in 9 months there will be a baby boom, entirely consisting of firstborn children"

Doesn’t really make sense considering the state of hospitals in the near future.

There are various memes floating around about how there's going to be a surge of kids conceived during this quarantine/social distancing times.

In short, it seems likely people are going to have more sex when they are stuck at home.

OTOH, I know people with children who are going crazy. I don't they are encouraged to have more children.

> I know people with children who are going crazy

I am going crazy, but my kids are also learning an absolute ton from having all this 1:1 attention from someone who is totally invested in them. I've seen big strides from each of them. Their character is really coming out.

I'm one to look for silver linings; this is surprisingly one of them.

Most people are desperately looking to the past for guidance on what the future will bring.

The same reason that there are spikes in child births 9 months after a long snowstorm.