Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:...
by marcosdumay on Thursday March 26, 2020 @10:12PM
(#22699952)
> especially spreading N <--> S hemispheres with the seasons
Temperature seems to have no impact on transmission rate in Brazil.
Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:...
by kgabis on Friday March 27, 2020 @04:16PM
(#22706406)
Isn't it too soon to assume that? Viruses decay faster at higher temperatures so it should have some effect on R0. With other measures like social distancing, masks, and remote work it might lower it below 1.
Re:Beware second waves of Covid-19 if lockdowns eased early:...
by marcosdumay on Friday March 27, 2020 @05:54PM
(#22707255)
There are already dozens of severely ill patients on many cities in Brazil, what is the easy to compare metric. The rate of growth of cold and hot cities isn't very different, and hasn't been very different from the untreated growth on the rest of the world.
Without a vaccine and pervasive testing, isolation resets the clock on the pandemic curve and it starts like Groundhog Day all over again, but at a potentially lower level. It will keep happening over and over again, especially spreading N <--> S hemispheres with the seasons. It will keep happening until either everyone is infected, resulting in hundreds of millions of cumulative deaths, indefinite isolation, or a vaccine is widely-deployed.
That is reality.