> the seriousness of the virus itself seems questionable.

Half of the world’s population are or have been under some kind if restriction due to this virus. I don’t governments do that if they are uncertain.

> I don't think we'll really know what's actually going on for a few more weeks or months

I don’t think it is going to happen, but if the US does what Trump wants and ”lets it rip”, that will answer the question about the seriousness.