Re:Merkel bans meetings of more than two people to slow coro...
by T-A on Sunday March 22, 2020 @09:06PM
(#22660360)
> I read that statnews article. Nothing in there actually indicates that young and HEALTHY people are at a high risk.
That's not what I responded to. This is:
> I haven't seen any young and HEALTHY folks needing ICU care.
The linked articles says "up to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit."
Unless you wish to claim that 1/5 people ages 20-44 are not HEALTHY (your capitalization, maybe there is some intended meaning I'm missing there), you have now seen what you were asking for.
> That being said there is a 0.1-0.2% risk for people within the age range of 20-44.
Let's go with the lower number, 0.1%, and see what that implies. In 2018, there were about 109 million people aged 20 to 44 in the US [1]; 0.1% of that is 109000, more than all ICU beds in the US [2]. And that's just counting those who would die if given intensive care. If we go with 2% of the same age group needing ICU treatment (again, the lower end of the quoted range, 2-4%), that's 2.2 million people.
With only 100000 ICU beds available, that means 2.1 million people aged 20-44 die, even if we deny everybody else intensive care.
That's not what I responded to. This is:
> I haven't seen any young and HEALTHY folks needing ICU care.
The linked articles says "up to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit."
Unless you wish to claim that 1/5 people ages 20-44 are not HEALTHY (your capitalization, maybe there is some intended meaning I'm missing there), you have now seen what you were asking for.
> That being said there is a 0.1-0.2% risk for people within the age range of 20-44.
Let's go with the lower number, 0.1%, and see what that implies. In 2018, there were about 109 million people aged 20 to 44 in the US [1]; 0.1% of that is 109000, more than all ICU beds in the US [2]. And that's just counting those who would die if given intensive care. If we go with 2% of the same age group needing ICU treatment (again, the lower end of the quoted range, 2-4%), that's 2.2 million people.
With only 100000 ICU beds available, that means 2.1 million people aged 20-44 die, even if we deny everybody else intensive care.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the...
[2] https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/18/coronav...