Sorry, I don't want to be too negative but I find your sentiment very naive and self-centred.

If you're well off now you'll be fine. If you're decently off in a wealthy country you'll be fine too. If you're one of the precariously employed and healthcare-less workers in a country like the US you will suffer and might die. If you are a precariously employed person in a poor country you'll watch many friends and family die.

Think what happens in Italy, a country with one of the best healthcare systems in the world, hitting South Sudan. Don't confuse your reality with how it will hit the rest of the world.

I'm quite aware this can become the biggest tragedy of our time. That's what I meant by "one way or another".

But I was only trying to think about the economic consequences for the survivors, after whatever is to come is over.

This hitting Syria give me the chills.

It's come to Afghanistan via Iran.

That may be the least prepared country for it.

I was thinking the same thing about the densely-populated Gaza Strip. They're already severely lacking in medical needs.

> My point is that this is no underlying weakness in the global economy.

Unfortunately, this is not at all true. There is a tremendous amount of debt in the system and we are on the precipice of a credit crisis that could wipe out a significant chunk of the global economy.

Perhaps. But it sounds like that's independent of the virus?

I only meant that the virus event doesn't add any fundamental flaw.

It doesn't "add a flaw", but instead it triggers the instability that exists because of the existing flaws. If large amounts of people stop being able to keep their heads above water (which is happening because of CoVID-related layoffs and reduced business) then their accumulated debt can crush them. Very few people in the US can survive in such poor economic conditions for "4-8 months" -- more than 60% of Americans can't cover a $1000 emergency[1]!

This is why many people are arguing for (and some countries have instituted) debt and rent cancellation for this period of time. That helps avoid tipping the scale and crushing a large portion of the population under the mountains of debt they already have. The US is also quite unique (in the worst possible way) in the massive amounts of medical and student loan debt that folks are saddled with.

[1]: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/most-americans-dont-have-the...

The thing I am worried about is that as the US goes ahead and helps its own people by essentially printing money, the rest of the world is getting crushed.

If many countries see their currency completely failing, they may be forced to look for radical changes. Which could mean some countries decide they must try to move away from the dollar as reserve. And that's the type of thing that could lead to a global war.

So I really, really hope that people are aware that money needs to work for everyone and act accordingly.

Personally I believe that there are fundamental structural issues with the current system, and it needs an upgrade to correct those issues and to be much more technologically sophisticated. The new system must also have sustainability as one of its core tenets.

What I think will happen is more countries crashing and burning, followed by half-assed sovereign debt relief. Whether we actually get to a world war, who knows.

I don't think so. 4 months without any customers is an eternity for restaurants/bar industry or tourism industry. A larger portion of these businesses will go bankrupt or reduce their size. People will lose their jobs and not have any money to buy stuff, which in turn slows down the economy even more.

I also think 4 months is very optimistic, I bet things aren't "normal" for over a year.

Take a look at what Ray Dalio and others have been saying about the long-term debt cycle.

In fact, there is a massive global debt problem that has been building for many decades.