News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by chaostheory on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:34PM (#22634536)
1. I think nearly everyone besides WHO has the consensus that China’s released numbers is too low, especially when you compare it to the numbers from Italy and South Korea. Whether that’s due to corruption or the swamped hospitals and a lack of test kits in the beginning is debatable.

2. This white paper may explain Newsom’s numbers.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

The growth is exponential and not linear which throws off most people. Surprisingly, even though the paper’s R0 is on the conservative side (2.2-2.4) and so is their case fatality rate. However, their simulations still predict 2.2 million deaths in the US if there’s no gov intervention for social distancing

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by btilly on Friday March 20, 2020 @12:55AM (#22635039)
That paper is very good. And got the UK to reverse their disastrous "herd immunity" strategy.

Sadly https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/top-uk-covid-1... says that the lead author of the study has COVID and likely was infectious while he attended a press conference on COVID.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by surewhynat on Friday March 20, 2020 @09:45AM (#22637438)
These are nonsense conspiracy theories. South Korea's Numbers are also too low?

No.

Our response in the west is just terrible because of all the political nonsense, the fact that scientists don't influence our countries, and most people are just too stupid or too spoiled to listen. Look at our countries, have you seen the kids partying in Miami? The people still protesting in France? How about everyone still going out for dinner?

Don't go blaming other countries' good performance for our crappy one.

Edit: on that note, other countries have been testing people on entry for months on entry. Russia has been testing people on entry. The Philippines tests everyone on the public transportation.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by chaostheory on Friday March 20, 2020 @11:59AM (#22638633)
It’s not a conspiracy theory and I specifically said SK’s numbers are more trustworthy. Historically, mainly due to authoritarianism, Chinese provincial governors have a strong tendency to lie with better numbers to avoid being sacked by Beijing. This has happened numerous times already... and before your allusions to racism get more pronounced, I am Chinese. Their numbers also don’t conform to infection simulations pre-lockdown

There are also many Chinese accounts of thousands of bodies just being cremated without being tested. to be fair, Italy is now supposedly experiencing the same thing now due to hospitals being overwhelmed.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by knzhou on Thursday March 19, 2020 @11:47PM (#22634640)
China's case fatality rate is half Italy's -- if anything, that tells us the Italian numbers are too low.
Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by michaelchisari on Friday March 20, 2020 @12:22AM (#22634857)
In China, 9% of people are 65 or older. In Italy, 22% are.

Since this is a disease with the highest mortality for the older age groups, Italy was always going to have a higher mortality rate.

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by gpderetta on Friday March 20, 2020 @05:36AM (#22636258)
Apparently in Italy even flu is deadlier than the rest of Europe [1].

[1] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S120197121...

Re:California governor issues statewide 'stay at home' order by orwin on Friday March 20, 2020 @01:27PM (#22639447)
northern italy is extremely humid, this is a factor for the flue too.