Re:Show HN: Covid-19 Interactive Model
by nbnoll on Thursday March 19, 2020 @01:57PM
(#22629918)
I agree that having a more "realistic" model that simulates people's social interactions is important, especially as we look to predicting longer term effects. This is something that is on the long-term roadmap for our model here, although as of now its on the back-burner while we deal with more immediate concerns like hospital allocation.
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Re:Show HN: Covid-19 Interactive Model
by llamataboot on Thursday March 19, 2020 @02:04PM
(#22629996)
yeah, it's hard to get to that out of a stock/flow differential model (that's what this is under the hood right?) but if we had some sense of effect of different measures on R we could at least build in different "presets" thanks for your work here! wasn't meaning to disparage it, just calling out a lack of anything clear I could offer friends to help that understand that point...
Yes, under the hood its a coupled set of ODEs with the ability to be stochastically sampled. But this means the entire susceptible population can interact with the entire infected population every time step w/ some small probability -- hence no structure. And no worries, not offense taken!