Re:Show HN: Covid-19 Interactive Model
by gus_massa on Wednesday March 18, 2020 @09:49AM
(#22616589)
Someone notices in another thread that in this model the death number does not depend on the number of beds or ICUs.
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We are working on this! It originally started out just as a visual representation however now it factors into the model. Check out branch feat/hospital-bed-model
Re:Show HN: Covid-19 Interactive Model
by gus_massa on Wednesday March 18, 2020 @10:06AM
(#22616770)
Nice to hear that, because one of the important factors is if the health system gets oversaturated.
Edit: For someone else that is interested, the link to the repo in GitHub, is in the "About" section at the top.
Edit 2: The About section has a lot of info. Perhaps you should copy part of that info to the main page.
Edit 3: When the site loads, it should show the graph of the simulation with the default parameters.
I just wanted to reply that the finite ICU capacity was merged last night and is now on the main webpage.
Re:Show HN: Covid-19 Interactive Model
by TheGallopedHigh on Thursday March 19, 2020 @08:02PM
(#22633115)
This can in a sense be captured in the virulence rate factor. Lower rate factor equals more care available.
The main problem is the number of people with very bad symptoms (for example that need ICU). If there are enough ICU, then the mortality rate is like 0.1%. If there are not enough, the mortality is like 5%. (The numbers are difficult to measure, so they are only estimations.)
Now they have added the ICU overflow, that is very important for the mortality rate.