The assumption is that mass mobilization is 1) effective and 2) necessary. We simply don't have enough data to know one way or another. Not saying self-isolating isn't prudent, but you can't really make reliable long term economic forecasts assuming any particular disease profile.

Full disclosure: I've been short term short the market for the last three weeks.

>Full disclosure: I've been short term short the market for the last three weeks

You hit the exact peak of the market before deciding to short? Wow. Can you share with us your prognostications on just how "short-term" you expect this to be, or will you update us with hindsight on that, too?

"I've been short the market" after a 30% draw-down is the new version of all prisoners claiming they're innocent. It's never "I started to get defensive 6 months ago" or "I went to half cash expecting a crash near-term". Top tick and went short. Every forum, every time.

This is where /r/wallstreetbets has it right: if you aren't going to post your trade in advance or verify it, don't talk about it.

Or, in my case, I was short (and on margin!) Boeing just before the market crashed.

I just don't tell people that I chickened out and covered on the first rally...

(or that I then put it all into GLD...)