If economic impacts to less-well-off people continue, though, we're going to see significant impacts on consumer spending. If economic impacts wipe out every small business without enough cash to stay afloat for 2 stressed months, we're going to see significant consumer spending, employment, and consumption impacts. Fine, everything will rebound in eight weeks... except for my local taco place, ramen place, pizza place, sporting goods place, and bookstores, which can't pay their rent for two months given a huge reduction in business.

Except local and state Govs have thought of that. Many localities and states have rolled out rent-freezes and interest-free loans to stop-gap those issues.

I don’t get this. If a meteor hits the earth and wipes out 25% of the population, that would be external. But there’s absolutely no reason to believe the significant reduction in economic activity and wealth would be temporary.

You think COVID-19 is going to kill 25% of the population?