The US may have already passed 100k cases. Is anyone performing randomized tests and publishing the results? That should give us a real sense for how far it's spread. The trouble is that the growth rate is so great, it's a moving target.

Only because of the panic. The narrative fairly recently was "why bother, more people die from the flu"; which isn't true, but basically the effect of everyone around merely being sick, with 80+% mild cases, would not be nearly as dramatic as envisioned, I think. I did not account for that in my original comment, but it's not going to be end of the world. And yes, we will eventually get to 40-60% infection rate unless we go into a permanent lockdown, the question is just how fast.