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A comment on CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off. Parent comment

Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by tomrod on Sunday March 15, 2020 @08:32PM (#22588376)
Grandparent comment is almost certainly referring to the Case Fatality Rate. South Korea is a better example, due to widespread testing (there was a lot of self-selection on cruise populations).

CFR of 3% - 5% for unprepared areas is not unreasonable. 0.6% is closer to the South Korean experience. https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/covid-19

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Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by ncallaway on Sunday March 15, 2020 @08:56PM (#22588513)
Yes, but my specific question was: where did they get a CFR of 0.2% from?

SK's CFR[1] is currently 0.9% (8,162 cases; 75 deaths).

I haven't seen any source (or reputable estimate) that indicates a 0.2% CFR. So I'm asking for a citation or reference for where that number came from.

[1] data from John's Hopkin's tracker: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...

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Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by odkamkfn on Sunday March 15, 2020 @10:37PM (#22589237)
Death rate != CFR.

CFR is the fatality rate for diagnosed people and it's gonna swing wildly depending on how many people are tested and diagnosed. And considering how this virus affects young and healthy people, there's good reason to believe that a lot of people get infected and never seek out medical assistance and never get diagnosed.

Even the best numbers we have are often skewed and misleading - as an example, we have a lot of good data from the cruise ship quarantined in Japan, but cruise passengers do not match the demographics of the general population.

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Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by th-ai on Sunday March 15, 2020 @10:35PM (#22589228)
Chloroquine may explain why South Korea has low CFR

https://youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9M?t=891

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Re:CDC says U.S. gatherings of over 50 people should be put off by evross on Monday March 16, 2020 @12:01AM (#22589794)
Really promising and excellent video. I hope chloroquine (or hydroxychloroquine) proves to be effective in emergency clinical trials. And that it can be readily sourced for upcoming patients if so.

All researchers, doctors should see this video & cited papers to evaluate potential.

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