Re:Containment gets harder every day we delay
by easytiger on Sunday March 15, 2020 @07:41PM
(#22587993)
It's not false. The rates of mortality being quoted are fundamentally wrong because testing is highly selective. I personally know people who likely have it, haven't been tested and so don't get counted. The virus is clearly more widespread than 200k infected who have actually been tested.
Re:Containment gets harder every day we delay
by Zach_the_Lizard on Sunday March 15, 2020 @07:54PM
(#22588092)
> Also, not all deaths happen among the identified vulnerable groups: "they are very very unlikely to have anything bad happen" is completely false.
Even assuming a 4% death rate (too high for the less vulnerable), that's a 96% chance of not having the worst possible consequences. So I'd say that's "very unlikely" for them.
This isn't the flu, and it's possible for even people in their teens to die (true of the flu as well), but let's not act like it's the likely outcome.
I've seen numbers in the 0.2% range for younger (< 39) age cohorts. That's twice as deadly as the flu (0.1%) but IMO not "shut society down" levels of bad for people in that age group.
Vulnerable or not, the rest of the nation is a transmission vector. Also, not all deaths happen among the identified vulnerable groups: "they are very very unlikely to have anything bad happen" is completely false.