And the "shit gets real" part only occurs 20% of the time, give or take - which means the virus might spread quite a bit while showing symptoms no more severe than a common cold. That also introduces some further unpredictable lag between any social distancing behaviors being introduced and their effects on the actual numbers.
We're using a cracked, dirty camera lens to film a small fraction of the tip of a rapidly growing iceberg.... And the photo processing time is two weeks.
Death rates by age range also assume ICU care. It's virtually unheard of for healthy middle-aged people if they have access to good medical care, but plenty of 30- and 40-somethings can and have died from it once the hospitals are overrun.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_I...
Source?
China plainly lied about the outcomes of the SARS epidemic and reported about half the fatality rate of nearly every other country. Hell, no Chinese person I've talked with recently believes the official numbers.
Essentially this was not in bad faith when it was published but it is now so out of date and misleading and sharing it now is dangerous in that it may cause people to ignore safety advice.
Given that people are making difficult choices right now that will impact the course of the epidemic we should be very careful sharing outdated information that could lead to people becoming infected.
China's numbers are a minimum. Many people are saying online they are a maximum. I.e. claiming that there are lots of hidden mild infections when there are not.
No, I am no. I am saying the study supercedes numbers reported by authorities. The point of the study was to scatter information on very opaque reporting.
> China's numbers are a minimum. Many people are saying online they are a maximum. I.e. claiming that there are lots of hidden mild infections when there are not.
That doesn't parse.
The way I interpreted that discrepancy is that in the presence of full testing and good ICU care, the death rate from COVID-19 is about 0.7-1%. When the hospitals get overloaded, as they've been in Wuhan and Italy, the death rate skyrockets to 5-10%. This also squares roughly with the number of people who need ICU care in places where the death rate is low. If you need ICU care and don't get it, presumably you'll be dead.
Well, substantially all of the cases that end up dying go to the hospital first, and many more besides that and up recovering. It shouldn't be surprising that the hospitalization rate is higher than the fatality rate.
This is a real issue, and I have no solutions. The only thing I've been saying to them is that all bars and restaurants will be closed here in 2-3 weeks and that their bosses will understand then. They are understandably worried that in the aftermath of all of this, there will be so many unemployed servers/bartenders/cooks/drivers that it will be difficult or impossible to get their job, or any other job, back, with no way to pay rent in April or perhaps May either.
The only thing that might help there is if warmer weather reduces the spread. But then it could very well come back in the fall.
People need to stay home, period. Unless you work in healthcare, a grocery store, or some essential service, or are going to one of the same, you need to stay home. I know there's lots of reasons people aren't staying home yet, like they don't have paid sick leave, but still, none of this overrides the sheer importance of stopping the pandemic.
So the phrasing should be "Stay home, period." Not "Stay home if possible".
But your point is right. "If possible" means "unless it's absolutely essential for your survival or the survival of others".
Pretending that the only disaster we are facing is medical is blinding yourself to the reality that we are trying to navigate our way between twin catastrophes.
[1] https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articles/...
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/03/13/us/ap-us-virus-o...
[3] https://www.feedingamerica.org/sites/default/files/2019-04/2...
[4] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/07/how-job-l...
Plus, all the school districts that have shut down so far have continued to offer meals for students AFAIK.
Source: - https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/lamvo/coronavirus-death... - https://www.santaclarausd.org/site/default.aspx?PageType=3&D... - https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Bay-Area-school-closures...
Put that all aside.
Remember-- the numbers we see now are a look at the PAST. The infection incubates silently for a median 5 days. Then symptoms present. Then a week goes by with relatively mild illness. THEN shit gets real. THEN comes the hospital visit, the fight for a test, the time it takes for the test results to come back (if it happens). THEN the number gets added. Then you see it on wikipedia or the news.
These numbers we're seeing today are a time machine view backwards to recognize infections from 14 days ago. So infections spreading TODAY will show up AFTER the current Italy-like situation has already taken hold in the United States.
If it is possible, STAY HOME.