How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers

Re:How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers by meowface on Saturday March 14, 2020 @07:39PM (#22579644)

I know nothing about all of this, but I guess the idea is there are too many closely concentrated people and too many variables to control for, so if there are new cases, they could potentially turn into new outbreaks if they aren't detected and handled in time. And it's likely just a matter of probability whether or not they all get detected. Even the most advanced and restrictive surveillance state in the world can't possibly catch everything with 100% probability.

I think there's a decent chance the outcome won't be nearly as bad as the worst case scenario, but the worst case scenario is pretty scary. There is a non-zero probability that this wave is only beginning, that there are going to be future outbreaks and pandemic waves this year, and that by year's end there'll be millions of deaths globally.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers by maxerickson on Saturday March 14, 2020 @07:47PM (#22579690)

In the video he talks about taking temperatures every time someone enters a building.

Anyone with a fever is screened for the infection using a portable CT scanner (they don't do a full image, they take a couple slices).

People with suspect CT results are tested and held in quarantine until the test result comes in.

The virus simply will not spread as fast in those conditions as it did when local officials were covering up, and people can start moving around more without backing off those conditions.

[ Parent | on HN ]