How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers

Re:How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers by hef19898 on Saturday March 14, 2020 @04:20PM (#22578341)

My impression was, that everybody with syptoms who ot hospitalized also got tested. So the number of undiagnosed death should be very low. And by an order of magnitude lower than the number of untested, but infected, cases out in the wild.

But as everybody points out, the correct number can only be claculated after the fact. and even the it might be of.

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Re:How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers by owenmarshall on Saturday March 14, 2020 @04:32PM (#22578435)

I would definitely suspect you are right, though: many of the reports we’ve seen so far indicates community spread was occurring before the first case was detected - consider the Ohio estimate yesterday that ~1% of their population is infected.

So long term a lower CFR seems to make sense.

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Re:How Bad Is the Coronavirus? Let’s Run the Numbers by hef19898 on Saturday March 14, 2020 @04:34PM (#22578453)

Sounds logical to me as well. That's also how I understood virologists and the like.

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