Re:U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
by ebiester on Thursday March 12, 2020 @09:55AM
(#22556851)
A 12% CFR is overstating it, but also because we won't be counting the heart attacks that weren't treated, the chemo and radiation therapy that was postponed, and the other health effects.
I think the true measure will be the year over year total mortality.
Re:U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
by droithomme on Thursday March 12, 2020 @08:40PM
(#22563608)
> 12% CFR is overstating it
If we overload our hospitals then CFR will go towards the number of cases that require hospitalization. Which is around 20%. Italy is currently far over hospital capacity and has a CFR today of 8% and rising.
Re:U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
by hcknwscommenter on Thursday March 12, 2020 @07:48PM
(#22563275)
If our health systems are not overwhelmed, sure definitely 12% is overstating it. If they are, look out!
I think you mean that this should be considered the goal upper bound on CFR. It's really the lower bound on CFR if you do everything right. If you do everything wrong, like the US is heading towards, you get overloaded health systems, critical shortages, and a 12% CFR or higher.