Re:U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
by TheGallopedHigh on Thursday March 12, 2020 @03:46AM
(#22554654)
You’re describing a typical SIR model (susceptible infected recovered) which can be solved analytically. You can see the dependence on all those points you mentioned above.
Note this is a “mean-field” model (everyone evenly mixed together) so take it with a grain of salt...
Re:U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
by Gibbon1 on Thursday March 12, 2020 @04:00AM
(#22554704)
That's what I was trying to do. I thought it would be interesting to build one and play with it. The issue with it being a mean model vs a mixes contact model noted.
Re:U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
by TheGallopedHigh on Friday March 13, 2020 @09:37AM
(#22567131)
Both of these models are well studied and compared in the literature
1. Reducing the transmission rate lowers the total number of people sick at one time. Lowers the ultimate number who contract it. And pushes the peak infection rate out.
2. The above numbers are very sensitive to r0.
3. An exponential when it hits looks like a wall. You end up with a significant percentage of the population sick at once.
Could be my model being shitty but it looks like at high r0 there is a momentum effect which drives the total number infected above what you would expect.