Re:White House told federal health agency to classify corona...
by mlavin on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @03:12PM
(#22549309)
Please remember that epidemics must, by rules of reality, logistic curves, not exponential.
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Re:White House told federal health agency to classify corona...
by jhart99 on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @03:18PM
(#22549393)
Yes at some point the new infections has to go down if for no other reason than there is no one left to infect. As you said it must be logistic, because after a while infected people simply bump into fewer and fewer uninfected people.
Re:White House told federal health agency to classify corona...
by altcognito on Thursday March 12, 2020 @09:18AM
(#22556477)
Thanks, I was wondering what the name of the curve was, because logically there is no way it ends up being totally exponential.
Re:White House told federal health agency to classify corona...
by mlavin on Thursday March 12, 2020 @10:53AM
(#22557458)
And to be more specific, you can roughly model it with a Gompertz function:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function