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Re:Covid-19 update and guidance to limit spread by matwood on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @04:37PM (#22539420)
One thing missing from your analysis is that the group you end up in is greatly impacted by age and current health.
Re:Covid-19 update and guidance to limit spread by nostrademons on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @04:51PM (#22539558)
Right, although the news out of Italy is that young healthy adults are ending up in the "bad pneumonia, need hospitalization" bucket nearly (but not quite) as much as older patients. They just have a much better prognosis with hospital interventions, because once they're ventilated or on oxygen for a while their immune system can reliably clear the virus, while with 80+ year olds or folks with pre-existing conditions it starts running amuck and causes ARDS or multiple organ failure. Overload the hospital system and the death rate jumps for healthy young adults as well - this happened in Wuhan and is now happening in Italy and Iran, and is why you see videos on the Internet of middle-aged adults dead in their bed from coronavirus.
Re:Covid-19 update and guidance to limit spread by nostromo on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @05:55PM (#22540184)
Your analysis is suffering from survivorship bias -- Italy still has no idea how many infections they actually have.

South Korea is a better dataset because they have tested so many people.