Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to...
by coldtea on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @09:31AM
(#22545641)
Andrea Ricciardi, Professor of Hygiene and adviser to the Ministry of Health: "The most frightening point is the pitted figures on how much the virus can spread. the curves of the graphs elaborated by the epidemiologists and not only in Italy: according to the models, it could strike until 60% of the population, which means that according to the mortality rates there could be a million deaths only in Italy."
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to...
by zzzzzzzza on Wednesday March 11, 2020 @05:10AM
(#22544274)
right now in italy it's more like 8% fatality rate
south korea is an outlier and most of their cases are not resolved, they may have a lot of false positives
time to act was weeks ago.
First, using the total population as a basis is just wrong. Some will certainly be immune to a certain degree while others are simply lucky.
Even very aggressive pandemics, hitting totally ill-prepared societies didn't infect every single person. Not even the black death managed to do so. So why do you think COVID-19 would end up doing that?
And using the 3.4% is another issue. Because you have the Wuhan rate, which is much higher than the rate eslewhere. And this thing is a moving target because testing was rather limted earlier. South Korea seems to be the best source to get mortalitiy rates due to their aggressive testing.