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Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by FartyMcFarter on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @01:38AM (#22533052)
Most people don't think of 2% annual growth as exponential.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by alasdair_ on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @03:05AM (#22533370)
“Most people” could not accurately define the word “exponential” even if they were offered an exponential amount of money every year to do so.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by croon on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @03:26AM (#22533433)
To be fair they'd be incentiviced not to... assuming they understand the exponential nature of the money, which I guess they don't. But as soon as they do learn they won't want to explain.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by TeMPOraL on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @03:07AM (#22533376)
Also, growth narrative is always about adding/subtracting percent points - which makes most people think this is a linear phenomenon, because they don't make the connection that the quantity discussed is a multiplier, and charts they see are on log scale.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by littlestymaar on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @05:27AM (#22533999)
As long as you stay with low percentages, the linear approximation works pretty well: two times 1% lead to a 2.01% increase. But it starts breaking down as soon as you reach 10%.

Little trick to know (with some good approximation) the doubling time of some low-percentage growing system: count it linearly up to 10% and then multiply by 7 (which is roughly the doubling time for 10% growth). Example: 2% => 5*7=35 years to double.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by bxparks on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @10:49AM (#22535897)
This is identical to the Rule of 72, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_72. Except that you are using 70. The amazing thing about the rule of 72 is that it works pretty well even for rates greater than 10%.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by TeMPOraL on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @07:34AM (#22534545)
Or, in this context, 20% daily growth of coronavirus cases -> 20% => 0.5*7 = 3.5 days to double.
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by davidiach on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @04:21AM (#22533691)
And even fewer realize that a 2.1% growth rate is itself exponentially faster than a 2% growth rate.

If something grows by 2% per day, vs 2.1% per day, after a year the second one is >20x bigger.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by algorias on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @05:35AM (#22534036)
What you say is true in principle, but your numbers are wrong. I got a rather less dramatic 50% difference after a year:

  >>> 1.02**365
  1377.4082919660768
  >>> 1.021**365
  1969.6808462403098
  >>>
Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by davidiach on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:19AM (#22534222)
Thanks for the correction, I didn't actually do the math for that, just remembered something I've read a while back, but the numbers where different 20% vs 21%.

Apparently I don't understand exponential growth either cause I assumed a 5% difference scales linearly (as in the difference between 20% vs 21% growth rates for a given period should be the same as between 2% and 2.1%).

Silly me.

Re:Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to... by hef19898 on Tuesday March 10, 2020 @06:23AM (#22534241)
But a good exmple showing why numbers are so important. A 50% difference is an order of magnitude away from a factor 20. Thing is, once out there the wrong factor 20 is impossible to correct.