Areas that were locked down exactly 15 days ago, now seem to have seen a significant decrease in infection rates in the last few days. So there is hope that the system will fire on all cylinders and hold the line just long enough to weather the storm. Also, Southern Italy is significantly drier and warmer than Northern Italy, which might (might) help.

One of the issues working against this scenario is the fact that the worst-affected regions are also the ones with the best health services. The other regions might struggle to respond as efficiently as the "pioneers", although they will benefit from the accumulated experience.