Re:Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
by travisjungroth on Monday March 09, 2020 @02:14PM
(#22527972)
How long did it take Italy to go up three orders of magnitude in infection rate?
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A bit less than 10x, an order of magnitude, every week.
It's been really is very easy to see the future up until now. There's 9000 cases in Italy now; by the 16th of March, factoring in the containment measures, they could be 60-80k.
About 10% need intensive care; there's probably 3000 IC beds available now. Very simple.
Re:Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet
by travisjungroth on Monday March 09, 2020 @04:20PM
(#22529314)
Yeah, I'm not sure why I was downvoted. It was a leading question to point out that "3 orders of magnitude" isn't far away at all.
From the statistics I’ve seen, unless there’s effective quarantine and countermeasures in effect, you can expect an order of magnitude (while most of the population is not yet infected, obviously) about every 2 to 3 weeks. Yay for exponential growth.
So how many weeks for 10 orders of magnitude? Because it feels like you extrapolate linearly...