Tell HN: How USA school closure seems to be working out

Re:Tell HN: How USA school closure seems to be working out by csomar on Saturday March 07, 2020 @12:49PM (#22512869)

My wild guess is that the virus is quite spread there but healthcare caught up very late. South Korea has 7.041 cases with 36 persons in ICU; while Italy has 5.883 cases with 567 in ICU. If we correct by ICU numbers, then Italy should have diagnosed 109k persons with Coronavirus.

That assumes that South Korea did diagnose anyone who got the virus which is unlikely. So the real number might be in hundreds of thousands.

The virus is yet to hit the rest of Europe very hard, though. Italy should be a warning to the other countries of how bad the coronavirus is.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Tell HN: How USA school closure seems to be working out by marvin on Saturday March 07, 2020 @03:23PM (#22513789)

You've arrived at the same order as my estimate of the real number of cases in Italy (I arrived at ~80k, see sibling comment), using a different technique. Yours seems more reasonable.

But note that South Korea must inevitably have missed some cases, so assuming the same ratio of diagnosed to serious cases between Italy and SK. So the real number of diseased people in Italy must actually be a little higher.

[ Parent | on HN ]