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Re:Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus by NicoJuicy on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @11:45AM (#22476116)
I was bearish yesterday, but looking at the raw data seems more reasonable ( spent a lot of time reading and analyzing).

The statistic influencers currently are China, South Korea and Iran.

Then it seems to help that people are more aware and numbers seem to be dropping. I'm short-term bearish, although it could change with an extreme outlier within the EU.

It also helps that I can see what a big corporation ( where I work) is doing and I don't see any panic. Rather creating awareness.

I'm also aware of the most vulnerable companies ( travel + flight) where a friend works and it seems to be okay, as in: "not as bad as the news seems to suggest", but nonetheless carefull.

Re:Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus by samvher on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @01:07PM (#22477061)
I don't know, Italy is doing pretty poorly with 79 dead on 160 recovered (2502 total cases). Only the numbers in China really seem to be dropping, and I wonder how that will hold up when people get back to work.

This is not going to be the end of the world as we know it but I think it will take quite some more time before it's behind us.

Re:Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus by makomk on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @02:58PM (#22478192)
Italy has an extremely old population compared to most of the rest of the world, and the initial outbreak was detected in a hospital which didn't help. Apparently all the deaths there so far have been people over 60 with existing serious health conditions: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/italy-elderly-...
Re:Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus by NicoJuicy on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @01:18PM (#22477185)
I think it's all okay. China has the biggest cities of the world and they censored it for 2 months, while the virus was spreading.

This isn't happening in the rest of the world. ( Except some dictatorships)

Some minor outliers like you mentioned, eg. Italy. But these are getting handled. It will not spread anymore like it did in China.

It's possible that some parts will need extra handling, but sharing information is the key for handling this.

Re:Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus by samvher on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @01:39PM (#22477429)
I like your optimism and I hope you're right. I don't think Italy, South Korea, Iran are outliers in the sense that there is something fundamentally different going on there though - I think they are just ahead in terms of time. Overall the spread in different countries seems to follow very similar patterns but with different starting dates.

Yes, China did some weird stuff with information in the beginning, but it seems there is not really much reason to suspect they're hiding information anymore [1,2]. The responses by free-er nations have been much milder with more reliance on self-quarantine. Let's hope that that works. And let's hope there will be sufficient testing to stay on top of things.

[1] https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-...

[2] https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-ch...

Re:Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus by NicoJuicy on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @02:45PM (#22478060)
While the rest of the world is following, we already had the example of quarantine.

We will see what the best strategy will be, the hardest work is now for China, South Korea, Iran and Italy.

The rest will learn from them.

Re:Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus by asdfman123 on Tuesday March 03, 2020 @01:26PM (#22477278)
You also must consider that we're in the dark because of poor testing right now. A coworker pointed out that infection levels may be "leveling off" simply because the testing is rate limited.