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Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by mnm1 on Saturday February 29, 2020 @02:23PM (#22452420)
A CT scan is fairly standard procedure for diagnosing many things. Why do doctors and hospitals need CDC permission to use it to test? This seems like a bad movie where the CDC is not doing much due to political pressure. Why can't doctors act in their patients' best interest on their own?
Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by semi-extrinsic on Saturday February 29, 2020 @02:44PM (#22452561)
A CT has a pretty high radiation dose. As far as I understand, for every 2000 people given a chest CT we expect 1 person to get a fatal form of cancer due to the CT.

Compared to the natural incidence of getting a fatal cancer in your lifetime (about 400 in 2000), this is a very low. And for serious conditions, a CT can literally be a life saver.

But if you apply chest CTs to screen for a disease with (let's say) a 0.1% fatality rate, the side effects of your screening increases the fatality rate by 50%.

Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by anonsivalley652 on Saturday February 29, 2020 @02:58PM (#22452654)
It's ~29000 deaths / 70M CT scans per year.

That's 414 micromorts, which is almost exactly as risky as skydiving once on average.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort

Source: US NCI 2007

Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by semi-extrinsic on Saturday February 29, 2020 @04:27PM (#22453218)
Yeah, 1 in 2000 is 500 micromorts, somewhere in the 400-500 micromorts region.
Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by jonas21 on Saturday February 29, 2020 @03:42PM (#22452955)
The wikipedia article says skydiving is 8 micromorts per jump. So more like skydiving 50 times?
Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by medymed on Saturday February 29, 2020 @05:23PM (#22453602)
I don’t think biologic math always works combinatorially like multiple sky dives.

This sometime troubles me with radiation dosing comparisons. Another is time distribution, when a radiologic imaging study is equated with exposure from X amount of time in an airplane at high altitude. The time frames are different—- drinking 1 liter of water in an hour is usually safe, and drinking 50 liters of water is fine spaced out over a longer time period—-but not 50 liters over an hour. Radiation doses are often quite time dense.

Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by antognini on Saturday February 29, 2020 @04:03PM (#22453086)
Yes, the rule of thumb I know is that you can get about 25 CT scans in your lifetime before having a significantly increased risk of cancer. By contrast you can get about 25,000 chest X-rays.
Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by eganist on Saturday February 29, 2020 @02:51PM (#22452605)
From what we can tell, SARS-CoV-2 has a 2% mortality rate among those diagnosed. That seems like a pretty decent trade in odds if it accelerates early stage treatment.
Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by scottlocklin on Saturday February 29, 2020 @04:06PM (#22453104)
Considering you just read an article on how the CDC has told people to not test people who aren't obviously going to die, you may want to revise that figure downward some out of sample bias.
Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by kalipsosu on Saturday February 29, 2020 @04:55PM (#22453407)
2% within confirmed cases. There is a part of the iceberg which we cannot see because mild cases will not seek care. Actual mortality rate is far lower than that. You should check mortality rate for outside wuhan population. It is 0.08%
Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by ciceryadam on Monday March 02, 2020 @04:15PM (#22469072)
Italy's 52 deaths vs 1900 cases is higher than 2% - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/02/italys-coronav...
Re:My Covid-19 Story in Brooklyn by eganist on Saturday February 29, 2020 @02:36PM (#22452517)
If you want to see the outcome of a country's health department ignoring this outbreak for political purposes, look no further than Iran.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-iran-becam...