Re:I have the coronavirus – So far, it isn't that bad
by onetimemanytime on Saturday February 29, 2020 @01:35AM
(#22449299)
as you go up the age--I know it sounds cruel--but a lot of them would be dying anyway.
So 15% of 80+ year people dying of any cause is probably not far off normal dying rates (without the virus). Anyone know the age group stats of % of people dying of any "regular" causes?
Re:I have the coronavirus – So far, it isn't that bad
by Zacru on Saturday February 29, 2020 @02:21AM
(#22449438)
From https://www.statista.com/statistics/241572/death-rate-by-age...
Looks like 6% of 80-84 and 14% of 85+. Someone better at statistics than me could probably say what the relative and absolute risk increase is for contracting COVID-19 at those ages is.
Search for "all cause mortality by age" if you want to do some more research.
If they're 60, their risk is slightly higher than 3% because they're male and on the edge of two age groups.
Their previous state of health would be the biggest variable.
80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
This preliminary data from the Chinese officials maybe wildly high or low because dividing current deaths by current cases is invalid within an active event due to the two week incubation period. Additional math would be needed to estimate a range of total current unknown infections in order to make the percentages accurate.
What is known, is that like the flu or pneumonia, very old, males and unhealthy have elevated mortality rates.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...