Why do you say that? That’s what all the reporting says. That’s why the health care systems were overwhelmed.

We are seeing a lot of cases that are only being discovered after the patient has had symptoms for some period of time. It seems like a number of these cases have been mild enough that a lot of people would not have even sought care.

The idea that 1/6 cases are "critical" just doesn't align with this reality.

A 15% critical rate is very plausible. A widely shared report [1] on Chinese media described how an entire family died to virus. A man, his sister, mother, and father all died to the coronavirus. His wife is in serious condition.

Using the reported death rates posted above, the odds of this happening are 1.3% * 1.3% * 8% * 8% = 1/924556. That's nearly 1 in a million. I concede that the medical system in Wuhan was overwhelmed, and these 5 patients did not have access to medical care.

[1] https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-17/four-deaths-in-one-f...

No it is not, Diamond Princess is the only controlled environment we have and it didn't have even close to 15% critical rate.

Exactly... also see this report: https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232797151941611520

The situation is horrible, but look at the hospital workers rate of infection vs mortality.

Even horrible things can still be made to look more horrible.

Not at all. The number of serious/critical outside of China are about 3% and mostly elderly people.