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A comment on CDC: Possible ‘community spread’ coronavirus case in Bay Area. Parent comment

Re:CDC: Possible ‘community spread’ coronavirus case in Bay ... by jsight on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @11:56PM (#22430613)
We are seeing a lot of cases that are only being discovered after the patient has had symptoms for some period of time. It seems like a number of these cases have been mild enough that a lot of people would not have even sought care.

The idea that 1/6 cases are "critical" just doesn't align with this reality.

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Re:CDC: Possible ‘community spread’ coronavirus case in Bay ... by tristanj on Thursday February 27, 2020 @01:05AM (#22430966)
A 15% critical rate is very plausible. A widely shared report [1] on Chinese media described how an entire family died to virus. A man, his sister, mother, and father all died to the coronavirus. His wife is in serious condition.

Using the reported death rates posted above, the odds of this happening are 1.3% * 1.3% * 8% * 8% = 1/924556. That's nearly 1 in a million. I concede that the medical system in Wuhan was overwhelmed, and these 5 patients did not have access to medical care.

[1] https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-17/four-deaths-in-one-f...

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Re:CDC: Possible ‘community spread’ coronavirus case in Bay ... by username90 on Thursday February 27, 2020 @05:49AM (#22432228)
No it is not, Diamond Princess is the only controlled environment we have and it didn't have even close to 15% critical rate.
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Re:CDC: Possible ‘community spread’ coronavirus case in Bay ... by jsight on Thursday February 27, 2020 @12:48PM (#22435662)
Exactly... also see this report: https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1232797151941611520

The situation is horrible, but look at the hospital workers rate of infection vs mortality.

Even horrible things can still be made to look more horrible.

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