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A comment on Say It Is So: Baseball’s Disgrace. Parent comment

Re:Say It Is So: Baseball’s Disgrace by LeifCarrotson on Tuesday February 25, 2020 @05:47PM (#22418357)
It's just 2^24 for probability 1/2, right?
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Re:Say It Is So: Baseball’s Disgrace by aplummer on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @01:57AM (#22420961)
It’s a different calculation Matt is doing. You are calculating the probability of that run happening now. Matt is calculating the expected length of the longest run in 1 million tosses.
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Re:Say It Is So: Baseball’s Disgrace by mattkrause on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @11:06AM (#22424206)
Exactly! (Thanks!)

The distinction is important because a sequence of ten heads seems 'rare' in isolation. However, it is not particularly unusual when you go looking for it as a subsequence of some bigger set of trials.

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