PRE-EXISTING CONDITION DEATH RATE*
Cardiovascular disease 10.5%
Diabetes 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
Hypertension 6.0%
Cancer 5.6%
no pre-existing conditions 0.9%
AGE DEATH RATE* 80+ years old 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities
Shutting down the economy and quarantining whole areas will do more harm than the virus. Tens of thousands of Americans already die of the flu and Coronavirus us just a very virulent form of that.
I realise that its grim to talk about, but there may actually be economic benefits from the very sickest dying from the virus and thus relieving the burden of large pension and healthcare expenses.
That's a lot of people.
Edit: and it might climb if people aren't getting proper care because the medical system is overloaded.
The best than can be done is to manage and stage its extent as much as possible, to avoid overwhelming healthcare services all at once. The Japanese seem to have the same idea.
Cases should be triaged and medical resources dedicated to those aged 50 and lower, who are still working and in generally good health.
The US pension system across many states, companies, and the federal Government itself is unsustainable, so this virus may be the key to bring those programs back into proper operation. Cities like Chicago will face a huge relief as Coronavirus spreads and lessens their pension burden.
Additionally, the housing freed up could be used by younger people and families, dramatically improving the quality of life for much of society. Inheritances could be used by younger generations to invest in businesses or upgrade personal living situations.
Lower pension and healthcare expenditure will allow lower taxes, perhaps allowing the elimination of payroll taxes.
The deaths will be tragic but from a purely economic perspective Coronavirus looks like a major opportunity for Western societies to de-age. We are very lucky that unlike other Pandemics, this virus is restricted to the sick and elderly, and barely impacts the young and healthy, unlike say the Spanish Flu.
(note: I know nothing when it comes to health related issues like this so I'm assuming it's completely naive thought since I haven't seen anyone else mention anything similar)
There are additional complications in that many cold viruses generate only partial or temporary immunity, and the immunity wears off in a couple years. Also that coronaviruses mutate fairly quickly (though not as quickly as influenza, another illness that's caused by a family of viruses rather than a single one and generates only temporary immunity). I've heard that coronaviruses are also fairly hard to develop vaccines for because of technical reasons that I don't really understand.
But if your goal is partial, temporary immunity to protect against a circulating pandemic - similar to a flu shot - it's theoretically possible. That partial, temporary immunity is why adults get fewer colds than children do - they already have immunity to many of the cold viruses circulating within the local population.
I think this will take a long long time. so far that hasn't happened with SARS and MERS. (we also don't have a vaccine for those 17 years later).
>I realise that its grim to talk about, but there may actually be economic benefits from the very sickest dying from the virus and thus relieving the burden of large pension and healthcare expenses.
What an optimistic perspective... I would think that this is more likely to over burden our already fragile health care systems in the short to medium term though.
Ex: You're 35, but you have asthma and high blood pressure.
Does that mean your mortality rate is 12.7%?
Also, your list says: > no pre-existing conditions 0.9% and > 10-19 years old 0.2% Does that mean a teenager with no pre-existing conditions has 1.1% mortality rate, or is it just 0.9%, or just 0.2%?
I'm honestly asking cause I know nothing about disease or mortality rates.
It would only be hell because its illegal, not because it's actually a problem.
There is no good reason for why you couldn't leave a healthy school-aged child home alone for the duration of a workday. That is, if you've actually raised them well.
Billions of people around the world have been raised in an environment where this sort of thing was normal - only a few western countries police this.
Utah has made it explicitly legal to leave children home alone.
In response to a well publicized case where the police initiated a neglect investigation of parents who allowed their children to walk to a nearby park alone, Maryland issued a policy directive specifying that such investigations cannot be initiated solely because children are seen in public alone, without any indication of specific impending harm[1]
I don't think this is true at all. I actually immigrated to the US from Iran and even decades ago it wasn't acceptable there either. There was always a parent, grandparent, family member, or neighbor to look after the children. That includes rural areas.
> That is, if you've actually raised them well.
I don't think it's that simple. I have two kids and the younger one is completely independent requiring less supervision while the older one is dependent on us for everything and needs constant supervision. Their personalities are so drastically different that defining "raising them well" can mean basically anything with hundreds of dynamic factors.
I watch a documentary series on YouTube called "Most Dangerous Ways to School" (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tg0ipCdiQQ) where kids travel to school alone for via dangerous terrain, but in most episodes the parents acknowledge how many kids die attempting to do such things and how dangerous it is. It's far from safe.
Same thing with small businesses - shutting them down is really going to hurt local economies. In my city, small business are about to shut down because of construction on a main stretch of road where people would ordinarily find parking. With no parking spaces, the businesses are on the verge of collapsing due to lack of customers. A shut-down due to this virus would really be catastrophic.