Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

Re:Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic... by JoeAltmaier on Tuesday February 25, 2020 @08:49AM (#22413131)

Note the fatality rate is deaths divided by current infected. But the people dying are those that contracted the disease 4-5 days ago (folks don't die the instant they get sick). So the death rate on folks ultimately reaches nearly double the reported rate?

But draw your own conclusions:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

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Re:Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic... by irq11 on Tuesday February 25, 2020 @09:44PM (#22419803)

No. This is completely incorrect.

The case fatality rate is the number of deaths divided by confirmed infections. This is what is being reported.

Infection Fatality Ratio changes the denominator to a model for the currently infected population. This is a smaller number, because the denominator is much larger.

There is no mortality metric being reported by reputable sources that is multiples higher than the CFR, as you suggest.

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...

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Re:Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic... by JoeAltmaier on Wednesday February 26, 2020 @03:25PM (#22426935)

Or, look at the timeline for infection vs eventual fatalities. As I said, draw your own conclusions from the reported data by Johns Hopkins (do they pass the filter for 'reputable'?).

The most useful number I know is, survival chances. How many in 100 stand to be alive say 2 months later. The numbers seem worse than 98, by a good margin. At least worldwide.

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